Trump Took a Shot at Regime Change. It Failed, but it Was Worth the Chance.
by David Shephard, ©2026
(Jun. 23, 2026) — In late February President Trump initiated a military strike on Iran, targeting the entire leadership of the Iranian regime. This decision clearly demonstrates that he was for regime change. It wasn’t about destroying Iran’s nuclear program; Trump took care of that with Operation Midnight Hammer back in June of 2025.
The February “incursion” or war of choice was about regime change, and Trump had the idea that regime change could be accomplished in one round of bombing. I am not sure of the military term for this, but I’d call it a decapitation strike. Trump probably believed that once the Ayatollah and his circle were killed, then the people would rise up, flood the streets and demand a new government. I don’t believe that this theory is far-fetched, although it’s possible that it is overly optimistic and naïve. Shortly after the start of the military action Trump, on social media, made an appeal to the Iranian people:
“The hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”
Sadly, it just didn’t work. There are many layers of leadership in the regime, and the remaining leaders who were not killed hung on – who can blame them? Without power they will likely be killed by their own people. It is safe to say that Trump never had any intention to engage in a long military campaign – at least the Iranian regime bet on that.
The fact is Trump never wanted to put “boots on the ground,” which would probably be necessary to secure Kharg Island, a must if we want to keep open the Strait of Hormuz. And he was always cognizant of the political calendar; for example, an ongoing war would not help his party in the midterms. My guess is that when Trump launched the attack back in February, he probably thought it would be settled by April, and if not, he’d seek a settlement.
Now while this latest attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime failed, I don’t fault Trump for taking a shot. I don’t agree with those critics, on the left and right, who claim that this deal is a surrender or disaster or a great defeat. If it had worked, Trump would go down in history as one of the great Presidents; he still may for other reasons, but overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran is a worthy goal. Freeing 70 million people is desirable.
The Iranian regime survives, for now, and unfortunately it can be reasonably argued that this war leaves Iran in a marginally better position. From a military standpoint the war has been lopsidedly in favor of the United States, but Iran, because it showed patience and hung on, is now actually in a slightly stronger bargaining position.
Trump wanted a deal more than the Iranians, and to make a deal Iran has strengthened its bargaining position. They now want to include, in negotiations, Israel’s activities in Lebanon, the unfreezing of all their assets, and they continue to be wedded to the idea of tolling the Hormuz Strait. And perhaps the biggest plus for them is they want to drive a wedge between Israel and the US, which this war has helped to do.
On the positive side, we still have a huge military advantage over Iran, and while we spent a lot of money and lost 13 soldiers on this regime change attempt, far from being a disaster or defeat, it was a shot worth taking. I don’t think we lost a war; rather, we lost one battle in an ongoing conflict. Our prestige and reputation will take a hit for this failure, but any damage is recoverable and not long-lasting.
My guess is Trump will get another shot to topple the regime and free Iran before he leaves office.
David Shephard is a native and very proud Virginian. Raised in Fairfax County, David graduated from George Mason University and majored in Government and Politics. He spent decades in politics, campaign consulting, raising money and lobbying. He is also a longtime conservative blogger writing for numerous blogs. He is also the host of “The Virginia Gentleman Podcast.”
David is the author of Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale, and his latest book, Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé.