by Don Fredrick, The Complete Obama Timeline, ©2022

(May 1, 2022) — Polls have shown that an increasing number of independent voters would be willing to cast their ballots for a third-party candidate in 2024 if the contest is again between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. Of course, if Biden is unable to even complete his first term, the Democrats might be stuck with Kamala “Kalamity” Harris as their candidate. What would it mean if the 2024 race were a contest between Biden/Harris and Trump/Ron DeSantis? Or between Harris/Buttigieg and DeSantis/Kristi Noem?

What it would mean is that the Democrats would be almost certain to lose the White House. Neither Biden or Harris has a good chance of winning in 2024, but the Democrats obviously want to stop Trump or DeSantis. How would they do that? The same way they got Clinton elected in 1992 with a mere 43 percent of the vote: push a third-party candidate to siphon votes from the Republican candidate. Incumbent President George H. W. Bush could have defeated Clinton had independent Ross Perot not been in the race, which is why the media went to work and did their best to move voters from Bush to Perot to help Clinton.

The media knew Perot would not be successful. But their goal was not to elect the short, quirky millionaire, it was to stop Bush. Journalists are certainly not above subterfuge. In 2008 the manipulative media praised John McCain as a “maverick” to help him win the Republican nomination, knowing full well he was a weak candidate they believed the eventual Democrat candidate could beat. The tactic is now known as “McCain the campaign.” Democrats and media leftists praise a weak candidate in the Republican field to help him win the nomination. After he does, they turn against him with ferocity. They repeated the process in 2016. In the early stages, everyone assumed the final contest would be between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, with a close race anticipated. The media then went into action to boost Trump, assuming that if he were the nominee he would be handily disposed of by the corrupt woman. (They assumed wrong.) In 2020 the “McCain the campaign” maneuver could not be used because Trump could not be successfully challenged for the nomination, so the tactic relied on instead was “monumental vote fraud conveniently aided by the Wuhan virus, mail-in ballots, and the violation of various state election laws.”)

In 2024 there will again be open presidential primaries in the Republican Party. But the “McCain the campaign” tactic is unlikely to work in 2024 because the Republican candidate will most assuredly be either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. GOP voters will not be tricked into supporting Joe Walsh, Adam Kinzinger, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, or Ted Cruz. The left’s presidential hopes in the 2024 election therefore depend on a third-party candidate to reduce the Trump or DeSantis vote totals.

President Donald Trump speaks at April 7, 2020 White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing

Who would that 2024 third-party candidate be? That is not easy to predict at the moment, but nobody should be surprised if one emerges. No should anyone be surprised if, behind the scenes, a lot of Democrat money goes to his or her campaign. Millions of independents object to Biden and will vote Republican in 2024. The Democrats know that and want to give those independents another option. If the anti-Democrat vote can be divided between the Republican candidate and an independent candidate, the Democrat could sneak in.

The risk the Democrats would be taking by secretly pushing a strong third-party candidate is the possibility that no candidate wins the necessary 270 Electoral College votes to become president. That would send the issue to the House of Representatives to choose the next president, and the selection would not be decided by a simple vote of 435 House members. According to the U.S. Constitution, there would be only 50 House votes cast, with each state getting one vote. Although the Democrats currently have more House members than Republicans, they are concentrated in fewer states (such as California). The advantage is therefore with the Republicans because there are more state delegations with Republican majority House members than Democrats. (Wisconsin, for example, has five Republican representatives in the House and three Democrat representatives. Even if the Democrat candidate were to win Wisconsin in 2024, if no candidate gains at least 270 Electoral College votes, the eight-member Wisconsin delegation would get only one vote in deciding who would win the White House.)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis & President Trump at the White House, April 2020 (public domain)

The make-up of the state delegations will obviously change after the November 2022 and November 2024 elections. But the Republican advantage is likely to increase after the 2022 election, and the GOP might very well retain that advantage into January 2025—when it would be of critical importance if none of the presidential candidates wins 270 Electoral College votes in the November, 2024.

We shall see…

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