April 28, 2020

Dear Editor,

Fractured trade relations with China are of great concern. However, I have long been far more gravely concerned about China’s Communist Party internally fracturing; thus, the most militarised economy, totalitarian nuclear-power country in the world: China…holding together!


Howard Hutchins
Victoria, Australia

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  1. It’s only hindsight wisdom. In the “values and norms” of the 18th century in America one could say they saw the American Revolution coming. Then from that, some could see America going on to become a powerful country. The one who would have seen that was Alexander Hamilton’s widow. She lived into the 1840s and saw the changes, as did her children.

    I bring this up because speculation about China holding together is a function of it’s history. Much has been said about the nation’s hidden flaws. But, from the first paragraph, are there pre-conditions for a similar revolution in China? Short answer, no. As some China-philes have noted, they are “wired” differently. Where we put the emphasis on the individual (supposedly), they put emphasis on the community with a corresponding downgrading of the importance of the individual. If that is true, and I question it to some extent, do there exist the pre-conditions for a revolution? Again, no.

    So what does this mean if we see it fracturing? They have had a lot of civil wars in the past, outcome always uncertain. There are emerging two forces struggling with each other. Confucianism and Christianity. Right how it is roughly an 85-15 split in the population. There is a lot of social science research on how minorities can overturn majorities. It has certainly been happening in America. Think of the dramatic shift on gay marriage. – Where am I going with this? Since no one has staked out this position, I will. I predict a shocking turn of events in China. A new leader will emerge who declares himself Christian. Clearly, this will take the tone in the nation dramatically. Relations with other countries? One can only imagine.