Three traditionally Blue States; Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire are now in play.
by David Shephard, ©2026
(Sep. 18, 2026) — On Wednesday the Detroit News, one of Detroit’s two major newspapers, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers for the Senate. Why would a big city paper, home to lots of Democrats, do such a thing? Well, one possible reason is that the Democratic nominee, Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed’s ideology is so far away from the views of traditional mainstream Democrat orthodoxy, that even a big city newspaper has to take a pass on him. And for the same reasons it is likely that the voters in Democrat leaning Michigan may also take a pass on him as well.
And on the other side of the ballot, the Republicans nominated a good candidate. Mike Rogers is a long-time member of Congress, representing Flint, Saginaw and Bay City, where he compiled a moderate and pro-Michigan voting record. Indeed, he is very much in line with traditional Michigan values. Trump carried the state in 2016 and in 2024, but the last Republican to represent Michigan in the Senate was Spencer Abraham who left office in 2001. This race looks to be competitive, and that is a problem for Democrats, because Democrats are defending Michigan, that is, it has an open seat because Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat, is retiring. If Republicans win it will be a major blow to the Democrats hope of taking the Senate.
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In Minnesota the polls show a tight race which is even getting tighter between Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya. Tafoya is a political outsider, who is famous for being a sports reporter. She is media savvy and telegenic. Flanagan is a political insider, who is woke and politically correct, and claims, despite an Irish sounding last name, to be a member of the Ojibwe tribe. She likes to remind people that her tribal name is Gizhiiwewidamoonkwe, which translates into “Speaking Loud Voice Woman.” I am not trying to mock her, by all evidence, publicly available, it seems that she is no counterfeit Indian, like Elizabeth Warren, she really does belong to a tribe.
Now I have seen a picture of her wearing a hijab, which is not traditionally worn by members of her tribe, but she wore on at least one occasion, (I’m not sure what she wore on 9-11) to show her sympathy with the Somali community which is overwhelmingly Muslim, and a community which ripped off federal taxpayers to the tune of several billion dollars. But for the ever politically correct Flanagan they were victims of the Trump Justice Department.
Flanagan is politically vulnerable because she was the Lt. Governor during the period of massive fraud, which took place under the nose of the Walz/Flanagan administration. Federal investigators have discovered that during much of the Walz/Flanigan administration federal welfare and Medicaid money, into the billions of dollars, was stolen by members of Minnesota’s Somali community. This community is politically powerful and there is evidence that the Minnesota government looked the other way. My guess is that Flanagan has been damaged by this scandal. A recent poll shows that the race is getting tighter. One poll shows a two-point race, with Flanagan at 44 percent and Tafoya at 42 percent, which is within the margin of error. Republicans have a shot at a pick-up, and Democrats will be forced to spend money, lots of campaign money which they would prefer to spend elsewhere rather than to defend what is a blue seat.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, so Democrats will have to defend the seat. They have nominated Rep. Chris Pappas, and the Republicans have nominated former Senator John Sununu, who lost the seat to Shaheen during the Obama, “Yes we can” wave election in 2008. Despite the loss Sununu is well respected in the Granite State, and he comes from a prominent political family. It will be hard for Democrats to tie Sununu to Trump; the Sununu family has their own brand. They are old school, pre-Trump Republicans. The polls are so close that the race is now rated by the Cook Political Report as a toss-up.
Currently, Republicans have 53 seats in the Senate, Democrats have 45, and there are 2 Independents, both of whom caucus with the Democrats. Republicans have an extra vote, in case of a tie, with Vice President Vance. So, for Democrats to win an outright majority they would need to flip 4 Republicans seats, a tall order, but they must hold all their seats as well. If, however, the Republicans are able to win either Minnesota, Michigan or New Hampshire, Democrats will have a tough time taking the Senate.
David Shephard is a native and very proud Virginian. Raised in Fairfax County, David graduated from George Mason University and majored in Government and Politics. He spent decades in politics, campaign consulting, raising money and lobbying. He is also a longtime conservative blogger writing for numerous blogs. He is also the host of “The Virginia Gentleman Podcast.”
David is the author of Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale, and his latest book, Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé.
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