by David Shephard, ©2026
(Aug. 21, 2026) — History teaches us a few things about mid-term elections, namely, turnout is lower than in a Presidential election year, and the party out of the White House always (with exceptions in 1998 and 2002) gains seats in Congress. I suppose it makes sense; the party out of power is hungry so they are more motivated to get out and vote. The other reason for concern is that so many of Trump’s supporters are Presidential-election-year-only voters. Republicans will have to find a way to mitigate these two trends to have any chance of keeping the House, and now even the Senate seems at risk.
Perhaps I am an optimist, but I believe that Republicans can outperform historical averages and at least hold the Senate, but to do that they will have to fire up the base and do a little bit better with independent voters than polls now suggest. A tall order, for sure, but it can be done. First, they need to remind voters of some of the Trump administration’s achievements, which are enormous. Second, they must focus on how far to the left the Democrats have drifted. The American people were not happy with Democrats in 2024, and Democrats have not changed since Biden; if anything, they have moved even farther to the left. One example Republicans should point out is all the Democratic Socialists who have been nominated this year. Indeed, Republicans should highlight and nationalize several of these lunatics. Third, Republicans need to paint a picture of what will happen if Democrats take control of Congress, with several socialists putting Democrats over the top. This will help motivate the GOP base.
We must acknowledge that Trump has achieved a lot in the last couple of years. On the international front, Trump brought an end to the war in Gaza, something that Biden couldn’t do. Trump got our European allies to contribute more to support NATO, and he ended the Maduro regime in Venezuela. These are real successes, and Republicans and Trump need to tout these things.
On the home front, he secured the border, something Biden couldn’t do (after first opening it) in four years. Trump brought down inflation. It peaked at over 9 percent due to the wild spending of Biden and then-Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, who needlessly spent trillions of dollars, using Covid as an excuse.
It is true Trump has had to focus on Iran, which has not gone so well, but he needs to focus on his successes, especially successes on domestic concerns.
Secondly, Republicans need to point out the extremism of the Democrats. To do this they should nationalize the midterm elections and highlight several of the biggest far-left anti-American Democrats running for the House and Senate. Some good examples: in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional district the Democratic nominee is Adam Hamawy, a native Egyptian, who was an admirer and defense witness for Omar Abdel-Rahman, known as the Blind Sheikh, who tried to blow up the World Trade Center in 1993. It’s funny, Democrats are now complaining about President Trump wanting to travel with Natalie Harp, but it was Adam Hamawy who, back in the 1990s, traveled with the Blind Sheikh. The very fact that Hamawy was willing to share a cheap motel room with him proves, beyond any reasonable doubt, that Hamawy was committed to him and Jihad.
And in Colorado’s 1st district, the Democrat nominee is Ethiopian-born Melat Kiros, who said that 9-11 was inevitable due to America’s immoral foreign policy. So, I guess according to her we should not be that upset with Mohammad Atta, who flew the hijacked American Airlines plane into the World Trade Center yelling Allahu Akbar, because it was inevitable. Someone was going to kill innocent Americans. It wasn’t really Atta’s fault. The real culprit was America and her anti-Muslim and pro-Israeli bias.
Then there is Darializa Avila Chevalier, the Democrat nominee in New York’s 13th district. She is a professional student who believes in socialism and opposes all forms of deportations. In Florida, Democrats nominated for the Senate Angie Nixon, who likes socialism and drag queen shows. And in Michigan the Democrats nominated for the Senate Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed, an antisemitic Palestinian nationalist, who couldn’t even bring himself to applaud the death of the Iranian cleric and dictator Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Sadly, because of the way the districts are drawn, most of the people I mentioned will win, and if Democrats take control of Congress, these people will have real power. Republicans need to make this point.
Finally, Republicans need to paint a picture of what it will look like if Democrats retake both houses of Congress. There will be extensive and time-consuming hearings and witch hunts. No doubt Trump will be impeached on trumped-up charges. The Senate won’t convict, but if Democrats take the Senate, I highly doubt that Trump will get any judges confirmed.
The Republican National Committee has a huge war chest. They have the resources to highlight Republican success over the last two years, to point out Democrat extremism, and to paint a picture of the disaster that would come from a Democrat takeover of Congress. Those three steps will bring out our base and appeal to independent voters. Such a message will stop a blue wave.
David Shephard is a native and very proud Virginian. Raised in Fairfax County, David graduated from George Mason University and majored in Government and Politics. He spent decades in politics, campaign consulting, raising money and lobbying. He is also a longtime conservative blogger writing for numerous blogs. He is also the host of “The Virginia Gentleman Podcast.”
David is the author of Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale, and his latest book, Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé.