by David Shephard, ©2026
(Jul. 23, 2026) — When I was growing up in Fairfax County in the 1980’s (a great decade, by the way), one of our neighbors was Congressman Kent Hance from Texas. A bit of Kent Hance trivia for you: he is the only person to ever defeat George W. Bush in an election. Well, Hance was a conservative Democrat who voted for much of President Reagan’s agenda. It may seem hard to believe today, but Reagan was able to get much of his agenda through Congress because of the votes of moderate and conservative Democrats. In fact, one of his favorite members of Congress was a Democrat, Dan Daniel from Virginia’s 5th district.
At the risk of being a little oversimplistic, back then, there were two wings of the Democratic Party, the liberals and the conservatives, or Boll Weevils as they were called; they were mostly from southern states. The liberals were in charge of the party to be sure. They picked the Speakers of the House, such as liberals Tip O’Neill and Tom Foley, but they knew they needed their conservative flank to win, so they kept them in the tent by deferring to them on some key things. They allowed them to nominate the candidates that they wanted in certain states and districts, and they offered them good committee assignments and pork for their districts. In addition, they allowed them to occasionally vote with Republicans, especially on social issues, without punishment. That combination worked for a while, but in the late 80’s and 90’s most of the conservative Democrats left the party, and Democrats lost both houses of Congress in 1994.
Safe to say that the Democratic Party of the 1980’s would be unrecognizable to the boys and girls who attend Columbia University today. It is true that political parties change over time, but the transformation between the party of Bill Clinton and the party of Joe Biden has been extraordinary. Since the 1980’s the Democrats got rid of the conservatives, then they got rid of the moderates for being too conservative, then they got rid of the liberals for not being far enough to the left. Now the party is left with progressives and socialists, and the socialists think that the progressives are too conservative. The party is more divided today than at any other time in my life. But they are going to have to choose a direction for the party. Do they move to the center? doubtful; do they move to the left? maybe, or do they move to the far left? I am reminded of Ronald Reagan’s great line, that the Democrats have moved so far left that they have left America.
One thing that has to be very troubling for the party is that the socialists don’t want to work with the progressives any more than the Bolsheviks wanted to work with the Mensheviks. Based on my observations of this season’s primary contests, it seems to me that they hate the progressives more than they hate Republicans. In every state and in every district, the socialists were on the march to defeat the progressive incumbents and nominees.
Who will rule the party into the future, the socialist or the progressive? And can the dominant faction keep the coalition together and win? I am not sure which faction will come to dominate the party, but one side will sooner or later, and we may not know for a couple election cycles which faction emerges because midterm elections are usually a referendum on the party in power. So Democrats, despite their differences, may be OK for 2026. For now, Trump Derangement Syndrome is the only thing holding the Democratic Party together, but in 2028 Trump will be gone and Democrats will need their own agenda; that’s when the real battle for the soul of the party begins.
Could it be possible for the coalition of progressives and socialists to hold together like the old Democratic coalition of liberals and southern Democrats did late last century? I doubt it, because the liberal Democrat and the conservative Democrat had some fundamental beliefs in common. They believed in America and in American values. They believed in strong borders, they wanted a strong defense, they believed in law and order. And they believed that America was a force for good in the world.
Back then, both the liberal Democrat and the conservative Democrat would have agreed that George Washington was a great man. Today Democrats are divided on such a question. About half the party wants to overthrow the American government which Washington helped to form and rewrite his legacy, and the other half either don’t want to or are undecided.
On specific issues socialists want to abolish the police, abolish ICE, open the border, block deportations of even criminal aliens, abandon Israel and overthrow capitalism. Progressives, while on the left, are not for these ideas. Many are even repulsed by them.
Progressives also have a pragmatic side; they know that socialism will be a hard sell for the general electorate, and they know that a lot of Democrats won’t be able to vote for a socialist nominee. But parties go through these ideological wars from time to time. Parties have to adopt an agenda and take positions. Can the socialists take over the party and do it in such a way that doesn’t drive millions of traditional Democrats out? I doubt it. Democrats are in a tough position. If they nominate a socialist for President they lose, and if they nominate a progressive then the socialists might stay home.
Over the next couple years, the Democrats will go through a brutal civil war as the two factions fight for control. Mean things will be said, friendships will be lost, long-time loyal Democrats will be defeated in primaries, and others will be purged, thrown out of the party and never heard from again. No doubt about it, the fight will be messy, full of tears and bitter recriminations. And I am going to enjoy watching every minute of it.
David Shephard is a native and very proud Virginian. Raised in Fairfax County, David graduated from George Mason University and majored in Government and Politics. He spent decades in politics, campaign consulting, raising money and lobbying. He is also a longtime conservative blogger writing for numerous blogs. He is also the host of “The Virginia Gentleman Podcast.”
David is the author of Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale, and his latest book, Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé.
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