And For Establishment Democrats Michigan May Be Their Last Stand.
by David Shephard, ©2026
(Jul. 7, 2026) — Yesterday Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign for the U.S. Senate, essentially setting up a two-person race between an establishment Democrat, Rep. Haley Stevens, and socialist and pro-Palestinian candidate Abdul El-Sayed. This primary battle will have national implications because it will offer a clear choice between representatives of the two wings of the Democratic Party, and the result will signify where the party is headed.
The socialists are coming off some big wins in New York and Colorado, where they nominated a total 4 of their own. And even more impressive, they knocked off two longtime incumbents. But can they win statewide in a swing state like Michigan? Can an establishment Democrat beat a socialist in a big state?
Haley Stevens is backed by the Senate’s highest-ranking Democrat, Chuck Schumer, and El-Sayed has been endorsed by AOC, Bernie Sanders, and Hasan Piker, among other reprobates. For those of you who are not familiar with Piker, he is a far-left podcaster who has argued that stealing is OK if you steal from a non-unionized shop. He also has expressed support for the Jay Jones view of political violence, up to and including murder. Piker saves most of his anger for landlords and healthcare CEOs.
The primary will be held on August 4, and it seems that right now El-Sayed is up. Last week a poll was released which had El-Sayed in the lead with 41 percent, with Haley Stevens in second with 35 percent and McMorrow bringing up the rear at 7 percent.
Where does McMorrow’s support go? Are her voters more likely to go with Stevens or El-Sayed? I’m not sure, and I don’t know enough to even give a guess – perhaps polling next week will give us an idea. However, I do believe that establishment Democrats believe that they needed to get McMorrow out of the race. A multi-candidate field would favor El-Sayed, for one reason: socialists don’t make up a majority of Democrats, certainly not in Michigan, so they will do better in a crowded field. It is based on this sound political theory, which is if there is a two-person race with a socialist against a non-socialist, the non-socialist is likely to have an edge.
And this year control of the Senate may come down to Michigan. Senator Gary Peters is retiring, so this is an open seat, and Democrats will need to hold it to have any chance of taking the Senate. The Republicans have a strong candidate in Mike Rogers, who is unopposed in the primary.
Michigan offers a good test for Democrats. It is not a deep blue state like New York or Colorado; Michigan is a swing state, full of good sane people. So, the establishment or liberal Democrats should have a decent shot at beating the socialists here and slowing their rise. For some perspective, in Michigan the socialists and traditional Democrats are tied. Biden, the establishment candidate, won it in 2020, beating socialist Bernie Sanders, but in 2016 the socialist Sanders edged out Hillary Clinton.
Michigan does have a high Arab population, at least compared to other states, which should help El-Sayed. But his coalition of Arabs in Dearborn and Detroit and the socialists may not be enough to put him over the top.
An El-Sayed victory will signify that the Democrats are in the process of being taken over by the socialists. However, if El-Sayed does win, then I think Republicans will pick up the seat.
We will find out what happens in Michigan next month. It could be that a pattern will emerge, that is, socialist victories in the primaries, which will lead to the destruction of the Democratic Party, which will lead to Republican victories in the general election. I think this is known as a win-win scenario.
David Shephard is a native and very proud Virginian. Raised in Fairfax County, David graduated from George Mason University and majored in Government and Politics. He spent decades in politics, campaign consulting, raising money and lobbying. He is also a longtime conservative blogger writing for numerous blogs. He is also the host of “The Virginia Gentleman Podcast.”
David is the author of Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale, and his latest book, Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé.