by David Shephard, ©2026
(May 6, 2026) — We are now into the second year of Trump’s second term, which means that midterm elections will be held later this year. Every member of the House is up for reelection and one third of the Senate is up. Historically the Party that controls the White House almost always loses seats in both Houses. The only exception to this rule, that I can think of, were the midterms of 1998, and 2002.
Now I will admit (with some pride) that I am not the average American. I am far from it. So far from the average American that I could not even identify that person. I am a guy who still watches reruns of the Dick Van Dyke Show, a guy who hasn’t been to a movie in over a decade, and a guy who couldn’t name one celebrity under the age of 50, but I do think that Trump, and the Republican majority in Congress, have done a great job over the last two years. They stopped the invasion at our southern border, an invasion that Democrats both denied was taking place, and at the same time claimed was impossible to stop. I think the average American can understand that. And the average person should be able to realize on their own, or be persuaded to understand, that if Democrats take control of Congress, they will cut off funding to immigration and border control, which will in effect reopen the border.
Trump and the Republicans cut billions in government waste, they brought down inflation, they have identified billions of dollars of waste and fraud in our social programs, they have cut taxes for working people, and retirees. On the international front Trump ended the war in Gaza, arrested Nicolas Maduro, a drug kingpin and Venezuelan dictator. And he has destroyed Iran’s nuclear program. These achievements alone could justify 10 years in power let alone 2. How bad was it before Trump took office? Well, consider this, even with a war going on in the Middle East right now, gas prices are still lower than they were at the height of Bidenflation.
But Democrats and the media seem to see a blue wave on the horizon, but I think it is more of a mirage based partly on wishful thinking, and partly on the belief that the American people have already forgotten the Biden years. Democrats will probably take control of the House of Representatives, since the Republican margin is currently just a couple of seats, and historically the average pickup by the minority party is a little over a dozen seats at a midterm. I do think the Senate is likely to stay in GOP hands.
The Democratic Party has a problem. They have been taken over by their left flank, and the left has the energy and the influence to get virtually all their candidates nominated. It’s funny, even the so-called moderate candidates, such as Abigail Spanberger, are far to the left.
I do think Republicans have reasons to be hopeful. In addition to a record of accomplishments, Republicans also have reasons to be optimistic based on the positions of so many of the Democrat nominees. It reminds of a quote attributed to Victor Hugo. He was an agnostic, but he said that he prayed once in his life. And he said his prayer was one simple request. He said, Lord, please make all my enemies ridiculous.
This year control of the Senate will come down to just a seat or two, and the Democrats have already nominated a couple Senate candidates who are probably unelectable in their state. At least they should be. For the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee some of the races should be layups.
I think that this year’s battle for the Senate is shaping up for Democrats to be like 2010 and 2012 were for Republicans. In those years Obama was in the White House. He was unpopular and the Republicans were winning lots of seats in the House, but they never took control of the Senate, in large part due to weak candidates, candidates who were easily portrayed by the media and Democrats as being too far to the right, and out of touch with average Americans.
Let me refresh your memory. Republicans did very well in the midterms in 2010, gaining 63 seats, and taking control of the House. In the Senate they gained seats but fell just a couple seats short of taking over. I think that at least two seats lost could probably be described as unenforced errors. First example, in Nevada, Republicans nominated Sharron Angle, a state legislator to challenge the Democrat incumbent Harry Reid. In 2010 Nevada was for the most part still a conservative state, and Reid was vulnerable. He should have been defeated, but Angle was one of the weaker GOP candidates, and there is evidence that, behind-the-scenes, Reid’s political people surreptitiously, and not at the request of the Angle campaign, helped Angle get the nomination. They knew that they could probably beat her. And they did.
The other seat that Republicans blew in 2010 was in Delaware. Republicans were on the verge of picking up the seat. Delaware is a small state, and they have one member of the House, and for years that one congressman was Mike Castle, a Republican. He had run and won statewide in Delaware for years. Republican leaders convinced him to give up his House seat and run for the Senate.
But the Republican grassroots decided to back political activist Christine O’Donnell. She was a complete bust as a general election candidate. When an old video clip of her admitting that she had “dabbled into witchcraft”, came out she cut an ad telling voters that she was not a witch. Not surprisingly she lost in the general election. Nevada and Delaware should have been GOP pickups that year.
Two years later Republicans missed another couple opportunities to pick up Senate seats. In 2012 Missouri Republicans nominated Representative Todd Akin. He was a favorite of the Tea Party, and their support won him the nomination, but he was probably too far to the right for the general electorate. In addition, he had made some intemperate remarks about abortion years earlier, claiming that real “rape victims rarely get pregnant.” His nomination not only cost Republicans the Missouri seat, but it also forced Republican candidates all across the country to try to defend or at least comment on what Akin said. I remember even here in Virginia Democrats talking about Akin’s comments and claiming that this was evidence that the Republican Party was conducting a “war on women.” This was back in the day when Democrats could define a woman. A day before their Party embraced the trans agenda. Akin not only lost the Missouri seat he may have cost us some votes nationwide.
Also, that same year, conservative Republicans in Indiana nominated state treasurer Richard Mourdock, another Tea Party favorite, to run in a primary against incumbent, and fellow Republican Richard Lugar. Lugar was an establishment Republican and many on the right wanted to get rid of him. With Mourdock they did, but Mourdock was a bad general election candidate, and he lost to a Democrat. No one doubts that if Lugar were the nominee he would have been elected.
Well, the good news. I think for Democrats 2026 could be their 2012 or 2010. They have nominated lots far-left candidates, and some of those candidates will fail to win, and those lost races will keep the Senate in Republican hands.
Look at some of the far-left candidates they have nominated. In Maine Democrats nominated a rich kid turned Oyster farmer, Graham Platner. He is a socialist, who wants to defund the police and get rid of ICE. Apparently, he is less of a Democratic Socialist and more National Socialist, because he put a Nazi tattoo on his chest. There is a video clip of him saying, “I am not a secret Nazi.” Republicans should make Democrat candidates, all across the country defend him. Even ask Democrat candidates point blank, “Do you support the guy with a Nazi Tattoo?”
In Texas, Democrats nominated James Talarico, a state Representative, who looks like he is 17 years old. The highlight of his resume is that he studied at a left-wing Presbyterian seminary (are there any other kinds?) and he now preaches such heresies that even the few people who still attend a Presbyterian USA church or an Episcopal church would be shocked.
In Michigan, Democrats are about to nominate Abdul El-Sayed. He is a pro-Palestinian, anti-ICE and anti-police radical lefty. When the ayatollah was killed earlier this year, rather than rejoice, as all who love freedom and women’s rights should have done, El-Sayed kept quiet and complained that a “lot of people in Dearborn are sad.” Well, if there are people, in our country, who are supportive of an Islamic Republic then we should be thinking of ways to get them out of our country.
It is scary that Democrats would nominate such far left, anti-American, anti-capitalist, anti-western candidates such as Talarico, El-Sayed and Platner. The Democrat Party should be punished for nominating such candidates. And I think Republicans would be wise to make them the faces of the Democrat Party.
David Shephard is a native and very proud Virginian. Raised in Fairfax County, David graduated from George Mason University and majored in Government and Politics. He spent decades in politics, campaign consulting, raising money and lobbying. He is also a longtime conservative blogger writing for numerous blogs. He is also the host of “The Virginia Gentleman Podcast.”
David is the author of Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale, and his latest book, Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé.