by John Bernard, ©2026
(Mar. 4, 2026) — The Shia-Sunni break is along the line of claimed legitimacy of Origin, Ascendancy, Authority and thus the “right/legitimate” purveyor of Allah’s command. Think Catholic-Protestant without having left behind the 16th century cleansing/burning-heretics-at-the-stake in France and Geneva.
Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, UAE, Yemen, Kuwait are predominately Sunni.
Even Lebanon is only <40% Shia, the break being 38% Shia, 30% Sunni, 20% Christian, the balance all Other. Additionally, Lebanon has given the Iranian Shia proxy, Hezbollah, safe harbor and operational freedom. This has allowed Lebanon to enjoy a level of security from Iran even as Iranian proxies have struck targets within Lebanon, most infamous, the Marine Corps barracks in Beirut in 1983. Currently, Iran is targeting Beirut where 80% are Sunni or Christian.
Syria has enjoyed a robust protection from Iran largely because the Assad regime was Alawite (Shia-lite). The current administration and the vast majority of the population are Sunni. But Iran has maintained a friendly relationship with Syria, hoping to use it as a buffer between Turkey and itself, which is 99% Muslim, 85% of which is Sunni and a credible threat to Iran.
Iran’s Shiite Twelver Theocrats (mostly taking a dirt nap now) hate the Sunni schism only slightly less than they hate Israel and the “Great Satan”/the USA. So, their striking them now is nothing less than an ideologically obsessed remnant, resigned to their impending fate, striking one final blow for their god, allah.
Semper Fidelis;
John Bernard