by James Lyons-Weiler, PhD, Popular Rationalism, ©2024
(Dec. 13, 2024) — A recently published article titled “Real-world effectiveness and causal mediation study of BNT162b2 on long COVID risks in children and adolescents” in eClinicalMedine has been touted by one of its authors as showing the COVID-19 mRNA jabs confer protection to the pediatric population from long COVID. While the study addresses an important and timely topic, several methodological issues and analytical flaws significantly undermine the reliability and validity of its findings. As a researcher with expertise in this are, I am compelled to highlight these concerns and the broader implications they may have for public health policies.
The study aimed to evaluate the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine in reducing the risks of long COVID in children and adolescents during the Delta and Omicron variant phases. It utilized data from 20 health systems within the RECOVER PCORnet network, focusing on pediatric cohorts aged 5–20 years.
The methods included constructing three independent cohorts: adolescents (12–20 years) during Delta (July–November 2021) and children (5–11 years) and adolescents (12–20 years) during Omicron (January–November 2022). Participants were stratified by vaccination status (first dose of BNT162b2 vs. unvaccinated), and outcomes were assessed via causal mediation analysis to separate direct and indirect effects on long COVID, factoring in confounders through propensity score adjustments.
The authors reports the vaccine’s effectiveness was higher during the Delta phase, with overall effectiveness at 95.4% among adolescents. For Omicron, effectiveness was 60.2% in children and 75.1% in adolescents. The study found that the vaccine’s primary benefit was its role in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections rather than modifying the risk of long COVID directly.
Here are the concerns.
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