Are Democrats “Depressed?”

by Sharon Rondeau

(Nov. 4, 2024) — On Monday’s edition of “Watters World” on the Fox News Channel, host Jesse Watters opined that Democrats have already concluded Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump will win Tuesday’s election over their candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.

As the chyron described the Democrats as “depressed” over the presumed outcome as well as “nervous” to the point of “taking out insurance policies,” Watters interviewed commentator and “The Daily Wire” founder Ben Shapiro, whose comments on the subject were more focused.

“I think that everything that she’s doing is in desperation,” Shapiro said of Harris, questioning her “allocation of resources” of door-knockers in Pennsylvania towns and cities on the eve of what many consider to be the most consequential presidential election in U.S. history.

The chyron did, however, also state that current polls show a “razor thin” presidential contest.

Both candidates have spent considerable time in the Keystone State and made appearances there on Monday in a final push prior to Tuesday’s general election.

Watters is not alone in his belief that Democrats are “depressed.”

Later, with ten minutes remaining in the program and following a commercial break, Watters admitted, “Nobody knows how it’s going to turn out.”

Some sources claim early voting this year has been dominated by Republicans and not Democrats, as it has been in the past, although some reports say the opposite or mixed results.

According to RealClearPolitics on November 4, national polls conducted on November 3 show Harris and Trump in a statistical tie. As of Monday, according to RCP’s reporting, Trump leads Harris substantially in Ohio in three polls, while in Michigan, one poll shows Trump ahead by two points and another that Harris is ahead by the same margin.

According to The New York Times Monday, “the polls show one of the closest presidential elections in the history of American politics. Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point. Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. In the history of modern polling, there’s never been a race where the final polls showed such a close contest.”

Because of the Electoral College the Founders devised to balance power between rural and urban states, presidential elections are conducted by the states on a winner-take-all basis, with the exception of Nebraska and Maine, which award their electoral votes by congressional districts.

According to “538,” founded by Nate Silver but now owned by ABC News, Trump has a slight edge over Harris to win the election.

“A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” the site reported Monday. “All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently ‘losing’ in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.”

At 11:30 a.m. Monday, Silver and co-writer Eli McKown-Dawson posted a model in the “Silver Bulletin” showing Harris leading nationally by eight-tenths of a point but Trump leading very slightly in more “swing” states than Harris.

The source 270toWin has provided an election forecast showing six “tossup” states consisting of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. The states of New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, Minnesota and New Mexico are categorized as “likely Democrat,” while Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Florida and Ohio are “likely Republican.”

Maine has a congressional district “likely Republican,” and Nebraska has a district which “leans” Democrat, according to the map.

All other states are considered either “safe Republican” or “safe Democrat.”