6 March 2023

Dear Readership and Very Concerned Americans,

Today I just read an article on US oil exports exceeding that of Russia and the Ukraine to make the USA the leading exporter on the planet. This shift has some consequences that bring to mind numerous others in the current geopolitical arena. 

Russia is undeniably bogged down in what appears to be a losing effort in the Ukraine; full frontal assaults, losing hundreds to machine-gun emplacements, are poor tactics. Mr. Putin can’t wage a war properly and neither can his generals. He’s throwing a lot of resources at them to no avail. I’m not sorry, but the real losers are the common Russian folks who are getting drafted and slaughtered. They are running out of tanks and converting old guns, emplacing them on even older platforms as a substitute. 

This devastation probably will be changing the geopolitical balance of power. Who will fill the void as our #1 adversary?  Of course you know it is China. In reality, they aren’t quite ready yet, but they are growing fast. Moreover, I see the USA as in decline with a weak and feebly aging leader, but it could turn around with another strong leader at the helm. Even his own party doesn’t want this dinosaur to run again, with only 37% saying they want him to run again according to an AP-NORC poll published in Forbes on February 6, 2023.  They see the dangers of incompetence as do many Americans.

Note that Russia and China have been meeting recently and scheduled further meetings. This coalition of a dying Russia with its high tech and nuclear capacity along with China’s growing military strength and hacker advantage is becoming a real threat to the free world. Added to that is Iran’s nearing a nuclear capacity and its hostile approach toward USA ally Israel and the USA, a definite head-turner. Adding to the mix is North Korea sporadically lobbing missiles at friends of the USA, a threat to be reckoned with.  The USA has formidable adversaries that we may not be able to stand up to if they amalgamate into a consolidated force. Will the next generation of Americans become slaves to these totalitarian powers? 

Some war planners think that North Korea and Iran would be game-changing factors. Should these rogue nations join in this coalition and attack South Korea or Israel, it would become additional fronts on the geopolitical map to spread our military resources thinner; not a game of “Risk,” but a tangible risk to our existence.

China would no doubt attack Taiwan, but this would probably be a diversion to a larger plot to conquer much more of the Oceania-Pacific region, thus yielding multiple battlefronts for USA resources to be committed.

Russia could divert its forces from the Ukraine and toss the remaining forces and reserves into the Northern European plain, having done so previously when diverting most of its divisions from Eastern Europe to Afghanistan. It took less than a month, from December 6 to December 24, 1979, for the bulk of Russia’s attack force to position themselves. If that were to be repeated, it would result in yet another concern for our forces to be spread thinner over a global geographical challenge; hopefully support from NATO allies would not dissipate. Several generations have passed since the alliance in Western Europe had to bind together in a consolidated action for mutual survival, also known as World War II. Will the will to remain free be there for the Western World?

Lastly the USA has internal terrorism to consider. For years, “plants” from hostile nations have been establishing themselves in “camps,” as reported by Martin Mawyer in 2015. Examples of numerous other concerns this writer has are recent destruction of food processing plants, gunfire and arrests at our vulnerable electrical grids, and seemingly biological warfare with COVID, bird flu, and more recently, tick disease in cattle. If we can’t get food, our hunger will drive us to reality. 

Smaller groups of terrorists also threaten with attacks on our inner cities. The local police and sheriff departments, FBI, US Marshals and Border Patrol don’t have anywhere near the capacity to handle all of these threats if they come at once in a coordinated move. Quietly, terrorists have even considered destroying transportation hubs such as railroads and wherever two interstates cross to disrupt commerce. This means no food to markets and even impeding troop movements. Consider that TSA covers the inside of airports, but is there a concern for attacks on the outside?  The brilliant people in our governmental agencies should prepare for these contingencies and do some pre-planning to avert or, at a minimum, reduce these threats. Perhaps even closer border security to prevent MS-13 and cartel entry should be implemented to protect our heartland. 

It may take all of us to get out of our comfort zones and prepare for these contingencies. They had better start acting quickly; the opposition is.

Regards,

James M. Hoover, CACM
Captain, USAF (Retired)

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  1. This editorial covers a lot of subjects and as editorials go, this one is filled with opinions and guesswork as far as the Russian military capabilities and accomplishments go, because there are little to no entries of confirming resources.

    1. I understand. There are footnotes added that you may have missed; however, I felt it was long enough. Adding more material to it just might have discouraged the readers from continuing to the end. Perhaps in other writings, I can break the topics down into smaller bites, but this is the global look. Jim Hoover