March 3, 2022
Dear Readership:
Subject: The Scenarios of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Russia will lose in three ways but claim a victory anyway.
- A pyrrhic victory is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it. It relates to Pyrrhus, a king of Epirus who defeated the Romans in 279 BCE but lost many of his troops. (Merriam-Webster definition.)
- Garrisoning the Ukraine will overwhelm Russia in the end. (Recent examples are Iran and Afghanistan) Russian losses will be exponential to the losses in the initial phase of a war.
- The Russian soldier isn’t interested in garrisoning and long-term conquest as his/her leadership is. Vodka and cell phone games hold their attention. Nothing much has changed in the mindset of Russian conscripts since the Cold War started. But bear in mind, Napoleon and Hitler learned the hard way not to invade Russia as this has not worked owing to the protection-of-the-“Motherland” resolve of the Russian people.
Ukraine will do well at first, then the Russians will overpower them. Principle of war is that defense wins 3-1 (owing to numerous reasons and factors). This attrition factor will reduce Russian power in the region. Unfortunately, many civilians will be killed with indiscriminate weapons. This is intentional for the Russians to cause terror and fear among citizens.
Here’s what the lineups look like:
Russia will then claim victory. Garrisoning cities will take place and that’s when the worm turns. Ukrainian men and some women will lurk in darkness and kill 5-10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian losses in this clandestine way. Putin will send in more troops and pull the pre-World War II Japanese tactic in garrisoning China by killing ten Chinamen for every Japanese soldier lost. Fear-mongering works, and the will of the Ukrainians will be severely tested at this time.
General guerilla warfare comes next which will be across the Ukraine, not just in the cities. Ukrainians will come out of the woods and knock off Russian units, but only the small ones, taking arms and ammo from dead Russian bodies. Larger Russian units will find no sign of life. Bear in mind, the Ukraine is the second largest nation in Europe behind Russia, an immense amount of territory for their military to protect.
Moldova, a small nation and former Soviet Socialist Republic to the southwest will be next to be run over by Russia, but there won’t be much resistance. Freedom was short-lived and many citizens are used to the old days under Russian totalitarianism. After that I suspect the former SSR “Stans” will drop like flies. Soon garrisoning will spread Russian forces thin.
Some geopolitical minds think that the Baltic States (northeastern region of Europe containing the countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, on the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea) might be next on the Russian hit list, but being members of NATO casts serious doubt for this move in the near future.
As the Russians’ biggest threat of thermonuclear war, either regional or international, looms over the Western world, Russia will keep the domain at bay. Studies over many years confirm the doomsday results of this type of action. But in due time, the nukes may be overridden.
There is no doubt Western anti-missile systems are being developed and some of them are in the field already. The history of warfare is one-upmanship back and forth in response to weapons technology improvements. City-State of Nation A develops a weapon; City-State of Nation B counters with an enhanced weapon.
Once a sufficient and proven ICBM system is developed and fielded, Russia will be intimidated to capitulate.
Regards,
James M. Hoover, CACM
Captain, USAF (Retired)
Graduate of the USAF Air Command and Staff College
Comments
8 responses to “The Scenarios of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine”
PDS (Putin Derangement Syndrome) seems to be gaining popularity as was/is Trump Derangement Syndrome. A lot of both are possible due to the hate of each person due to their past resume but mostly fueled by an agenda-driven criminal news media. I don’t care if Putin was a buck private or a full Colonel in the KGB. Each person possessing PDS needs to educate themselves on all aspects of the Ukraine war before removing the branding iron from the fire and asking Putin to bend over.
If you want to give peace a chance, investigate alternative news.
https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2022/03/special-report-from-the-front-line-in-ukraine-2534110.html
“T” for a Texan. “T” for Truth.
Retired USAF MSgt and prior Audio/Visual Repair Technician at the Air and Command Staff College, Maxwell AFB, AL
P.S.: Don’t hate me for using a former Soviet Union premier’s first name as the commenter identity. It’s a parody.
MSgt, thank you for your comments.
Actions are louder than words. As an ACSC associate you well know that my letter was one of strategy, not specifically an endorsement of war. The recent events of bombing of maternity/children’s hospital make me think of another topic to write about.
We have given peace a chance often in history (e.g. Neville Chamberlain), and unfortunately those hopes are thwarted by evil in the hearts of some leaders. There are times when deterrence even fails. Please watch as this Ukrainian situation develops. A learning and relearning of totalitarian bullying.
The way I see it, Putin and his gang of thugs need to be EXTERMINATED.
Captain Hoover, not sure I buy your theory (at least not all of it), but I am convinced of one thing which absolutely must happen. SOMEBODY MUST TAKE OUT PUTIN! Maybe the spooks at the CIA could figure out a way to do the good deed (they’ve done it before, but arguably never in a situation this crucial for our country, or the world at large). Where’s John Brennan when we need him for another hit ! Tom Arnold. Military veteran (enlisted Spec 4 in US Army in Europe!).
Hi Tom,
I think John Brennan disappeared about a year ago, otherwise he would still be bad mouthing Donald Trump and blaming Trump for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tom, thank you for your service to our nation. I too had a tour in Europe in my 20 years, England to be specific, but my duties took me around other places in Europe. In response to your comment, there are four raids that are classic, the execution of Ben Landin Son Tay (I had a small part in this one where we attempted to free prisoners near Hanoi), the successful prisoner freeing of the Philippine captives in World War II, and the Entebbe Raid by Israel in Africa from Idi Amin. They take quite a bit of planning and training for execution. I suspect that many different scenarios are being planned for capturing or killing Mr. Putin. It would take an ultimate authority to decide on this type of action, but no doubt that it is quite possible. Think Eglin AFB in Florida, where Special Operations Forces are headquartered.
Putin will use the Chechen troops for garrison duty and anti guerilla operations. Their main tactic will be to terrorize the Ukrainians through massacres and public torture. Some of those troops aspire to be islamist jihadists.
A.C., this is an entirely possible scenario of my editorial. Who would garrison the Ukraine is the only difference. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chechen troops would be assigned as would other mercenary groups. My best to you.