by ProfDave, ©2021
(Mar. 15, 2021) — In 1798, T.R. Malthus wrote the Essay on the Principle of Population. Noting that poor people had more children than rich people, he determined that the main cause of poverty was population increase. Given a pie, the more people you have at the table, the smaller the pieces. His solution was for poor people to have fewer children. Failing that, famine, plague and war would be required to keep them in check. Note: this is a fifth-grade level explanation – nothing in history is this simple. His proposal was not taken up in his time. Children were the only thing the poor had, and they hoped that one of them – at least – would succeed in life well enough to support them in their old age. Effective and affordable birth control was not available then and Christian regard for the dignity and sacredness of human life made the whole discussion distasteful. Instead, Christian reformers and the labor movement improved the lot and power of the working class over the next century until their spending drove the economy. Eventually, a mouth to feed turned out to have two hands to work and a wallet – nowadays a credit card – to spend.
Following World War II, Malthus reemerged. It was noticed that the population of developing countries was young and were having a lot of children in extreme poverty: a Malthusian situation. Paul Ehrlich came up with the “population bomb” to describe the disease and “zero population growth” (ZPG) as the prescription. In the developed world, at least, social legislation has shifted the dependence of the elderly from their own offspring to the state – but who funds the state? This ‘liberates’ us old folks from dependence on our offspring.
Meanwhile European cultural elites seem to be losing – or discarding – their Christian roots. Whether Hitler and Stalin – or Darwin, Marx and Nietzsche on the ideological level – are causes, effects, or mile posts cannot be debated here. Human life is no longer sacred. Nineteenth century scruples no longer apply. Now the pill and legalized abortion put the means into our hands, which Mao applied by force in China – where it seems to have succeeded. But what will happen when the “one child” generation must shoulder the full economic burden of the gerontocracy? Probably China will take the lead in euthanasia, too. In Europe – and here – the voluntary choices of couples not to marry, not to have children, and not to have as many children have been a little too effective. Ehrlich was dead wrong. The world food supply ballooned in excess of population growth. Famine today is mostly the result of war and civil disorder.
Now we have the opposite problem. A population that is shrinking out of control – and aging – is as much of a problem as a population that is young and growing out of control. If the birthrate drops below replacement (2.2 births per woman), the next generation has fewer child bearers and so on. Beyond a certain point we become an endangered species. Some smaller people groups are already in trouble. A society that views children as a burden rather than a resource and/or doesn’t consider the future worth the investment is endangered in more ways than one. An aging economy continues to grow for perhaps half a century, then stagnates or collapses – see Japan. The other thing that happens when the poor no longer have children is a labor vacuum to be filled by immigration. Our children are increasingly Hispanic. Not a serious problem – they share our appreciation of democracy and free enterprise. Our schools can become bilingual. The children in Europe, however, are now becoming Arabic speaking Moslems. Will secular Europe be able to assimilate these alien young people, deeply committed to a theocratic view of law and society? Already parts of London are under Sharia law. In 732 AD, the Frankish King Charles Martel saved Christendom by defeating the forces of Islam at Tours, in Southern France – one of history’s few really decisive battles. The verdict of that battle is about to be reversed in the bedroom.
Footnote: I am indebted to “The COVID Baby Bust Reflects a Disturbing Cultural Reality,” by John Stonestreet and Roberto Rivera (https://breakpoint.org/the-covid-baby-bust-reflects-a-disturbing-cultural-reality/?_hsmi=115338195&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-94cHK5uSpu8UzHc52fX-s6bdMS6YN3nh6Zs2HIy3_Z1E0Frf9UC_3pOAaGXLzguqsbf2F9QAhi95eiPH8HL7vmb3hOCg) also Chuck Colson, “Demographic Winter: Where Have All the Children Gone?” BreakPoint Commentary No. 080609, with bibliography (http://www.breakpoint.org/listingarticle.asp?ID=8017); and “Toys without Children: Demographic Suicide,” BreakPoint Commentary No. 050314.
David W. Heughins (“ProfDave”) is Adjunct Professor of History at Nazarene Bible College. He holds a BA from Eastern Nazarene College and a PhD in history from the University of Minnesota. He is the author of Holiness in 12 Steps (2020). He is a Vietnam veteran and is retired, living with his daughter and three grandchildren in Connecticut.