The Mad Mad Maths of Australian Emissions Targets

“REMORSELESS”

by Viv Forbes, ©2019, Executive Director, The Saltbush Club

(May 12, 2019) — Most politicians live in a green fantasy-land where facts and numbers don’t count.

They dream up fanciful figures for proposed cuts to industrial and agricultural emissions without any understanding of the remorseless growth of population.

The Australian government has set a target to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions by 27% from 2005 levels by 2030, just 11 years away. The ALP opposition plans to cut emissions by a staggering 45% by 2030.

Australia’s population is growing at 1.7% per year (higher than most other developed countries). At this growth rate, population will increase by about 50% from 2005 levels by 2030.

If we did NOTHING about cutting emissions, and the economy stood still, the continuing rise in population will ensure that emissions (and economic activity) per head of population will fall by 30% from 2005 levels by 2030.

Who among us is volunteering to use 30% less food, petrol, gas and electricity than we used in 2005 solely because of population growth? Who is promising to abolish the baby bonus and cut our intake of migrants, refugees, tourists and foreign students by 30%?

And of those prepared to make these sacrifices, who is volunteering to meet even the modest government cuts proposed for 2030 which will require us to use 50% less food, petrol, gas and electricity per capita than we used in 2005? The Green/ALP cuts would take us back to the middle ages.

We have just three choices – reduce population growth; abolish emissions targets; or welcome creeping poverty.

There is a fourth choice – eject all climate fools from the political stables in Canberra.

Their proposed emissions targets will harm the natural environment by splattering the land with subsidised wind and solar monstrosities. They will also divert land from producing food to producing ethanol fuel for cars, and they will force poor people into poverty with soaring electricity prices.

But they will have no measurable effect on climate.

Viv Forbes
Washpool   Qld  4306  Australia
forbes@saltbushclub.com

 

Further Reading:

Green energy policies freeze out the poor:

http://newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=58533

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Viv Forbes is not a member of any political party, and has no vested interests in mining, energy or bio-fuels. He and his wife breed meat sheep, drive a diesel car, ride petrol quad bikes, have roof-top solar panels and a diesel generator in the shed.

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Some emissions maths:

Year Population Emissions Target Index Index Emissions per capita
Index at 1.7% py
2005 100.00 100.0 1.00
2006 101.70
2007 103.43

2008 105.19
2009 106.98
2010 108.79
2011 110.64
2012 112.52
2013 114.44
2014 116.38
2015 118.36
2016 120.37
2017 122.42
2018 124.50
2019 126.62
2020 128.77
2021 130.96
2022 133.19
2023 135.45
2024 137.75
2025 140.09
2026 142.48
2027 144.90
2028 147.36
2029 149.87
2030 152.41 73.0 0.48

 

 

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