“THE ANSWER IS SIMPLE”
by Dr. Tim Ball and Tom Harris, ©2018
(Oct. 17, 2018) — The deaths and devastation caused by Hurricanes Michael and Florence are certainly appalling, and condolences are in order. However, it is a mistake to say that such events are worsening due to man-made climate change. In comparison with 2017, 2018 has been a relatively quiet year for hurricanes. The reason is simply that the wind shear, the changes in wind speed and direction that occur between atmospheric layers, has generally been high this year in the Gulf of Mexico, thereby usually disrupting cyclones before they can grow into hurricanes. And, of course humanity has no control over wind shear.
However, the global warming debate has become so distorted that most people do not understand that hurricanes are normal events and recent climate change is modest and well within natural variability.
To illustrate how this has come about, consider the September 23rd ABC News report, just days after Florence, which started:
With global temperatures rising, superstorms taking their deadly toll and a year-end deadline to firm up the Paris climate deal, leaders at this year’s U.N. General Assembly are feeling a sense of urgency to keep up the momentum on combating climate change.
Global temperatures are not rising. There are no superstorms, and the human toll is not deadlier. Costs, which are part of the toll, increased because of insurance, government, and exploitation. These claims are a sign of desperation as the climate change movement loses momentum. After all, very few countries are meeting their political and financial commitments to the Paris Agreement and the Green Climate Fund.
The only real urgency is for those who demand climate action, since the public is apparently losing interest. Gallup doesn’t even list climate as a separate concern in its July 2018 US poll, lumping it in with other issues in the general “Environment/Pollution” category which garnered only 2% of those polled saying it is “the most important problem facing this country today.” And, according to the UN’s worldwide poll of 10 million people, “Action taken on climate change” ranks last out of the 16 priorities suggested by the agency.
The environmental movement was originally a necessary paradigm shift when it started in the 1960s. Everybody knew it makes sense not to soil our nest but it went too far. In order to promote the alarm of human-caused change, they take normal events and present them as abnormal or unnatural.
The story of Hurricane Florence underscores the degree of corruption of natural events for a political agenda. All the players, from the bureaucrats at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, through many in the press, and the historical role of insurance companies, created misinformation, misused and omitted data to distort the reality. They took an event that was well within the norm in the historical record, and turned it into a never-before-seen monster. In reality, the impact of Florence was below the normal for long-term averages of hurricanes in this region. And Michael, though about the size of California at its peak, was dwarfed by the 2,200 km-wide ‘Super Typhoon’ Tip, the strongest ever, which made landfall in southern Japan on October 19, 1979 at the end of a cooling period.
Seen in a long-term perspective, what humans define as disasters are an opportunity for improvement, just like in nature. We must rethink disasters and reduce risk as much as reasonably possible but also recognize that they are opportunities to rebuild with better materials, new ideas, and improved planning. People go to London, England and marvel at the remarkable urban planning of streets and Georgian architecture. All of that happened only because of the Great Fire of London in 1666.
The public must start demanding proper answers to real-world questions. Are building codes adequate for regions that experience extreme weather events? Why are not more electrical systems buried underground? Why isn’t the long-term goal to create an infrastructure that reflects the risk factors of the region? The cost may be higher initially, but cheaper than the repair, not to mention the loss of lives, property, stress, and misery.
Of course, the answer is simple. The planning horizon is defined by the average length of time in office for politicians.
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Dr. Tim Ball is an environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Manitoba. Tom Harris is executive director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition.