ARE THEY ACCURATE, AND WILL THEY CHANGE BEFORE ELECTION DAY?
by Sharon Rondeau
(Aug. 29, 2016) — On Monday’s “Hannity” show at 10 PM EDT, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway stated that new polls published on Monday show a “tightening” of the contest between Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
Conway cited an Emerson Poll which reported the two candidates in a tie in Ohio when Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson were included.
An LA Times/USC poll between Trump and Clinton showed a tie.
Other general election polls cited by RealClearPolitics show Clinton leading Trump by between three and seven points, the latter of which is outside the margin of error.
On August 19, Politico reported that Clinton’s support was slipping due to revelations stemming from her use of a private server while she was Secretary of State, which included her sending of classified information to parties unauthorized tor receive it, the likely hacking of her emails by foreign governments or entities, and her testimony to Congress which differed from that of FBI Director James Comey.
On August 22, the website 270towin.com Reported that Johnson’s name will appear on the ballots in 43 states, while Stein will compete in 35 states.
Some have speculated that the polls disproportionately favor Clinton, as significantly larger crowds reportedly attending Trump rallies have been compared to Clinton’s reported much smaller venues.
While much was made of a June Trump rally in Virginia where the stadium was reported at approximately 25% full, no such reportage appears to have been done on Clinton heading into the November 8 general election. Some have suggested that left-leaning media have exaggerated the size of Clinton’s crowds.
Clinton and Trump have each called the other “a bigot,” while Clinton has emphasized what she says is Trump’s poor temperament and judgement. Trump, for his part, has been emphasizing what appears to be growing evidence that more than 50% of Clinton’s meetings with foreign officials as Secretary of State took place with donors to the Clinton Foundation.
“My work as secretary of state was not influenced by any outside forces,” Clinton said last week in her own defense in response to Trump’s criticism and call for a special prosecutor to launch an investigation.
On Wednesday, Trump intends to deliver an address in Arizona on the subject of “illegal immigration,” a key component of his primary campaign and about which he has been accused of changing his position over the last two weeks. Arizona is holding its primary on Tuesday.
As of Monday, there are 70 days until the election.