by Cauf Skiviers, Cultural Inappropriation, ©2024
(Jan. 22, 2024) — “As the Chinese said, to curse someone: ‘May you live in interesting times.’”
Umberto Eco
We live in interesting times where every war is about democracy, and every election is about WWIII. Yet, despite the hype, we all know so-called third world wars never happen. Study says.
(Whenever I try to fool myself into believing something, I mentally repeat “study says.” A critical thinking skill I learned from watching CNN.)
Or, at least, not until China says so. Xi Jinping is candid about “the use of force and reserving the option of taking all necessary means” over the Taiwan issue, which he insists “cannot be passed down from generation to generation.” It’s all part of his grand ‘Chinese Dream,’ set to be realised by 2049.
This leaves us with a quarter-century to avert a catastrophic showdown between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. I’m not blind; if China decides to muscle in on Taiwan, then we’re talking World War III.
However, the idea of China waging war ‘over’ Taiwan doesn’t quite add up. A WWIII over Taiwan is one thing; a WWIII with Taiwan already flying the Chinese flag would be a whole different beast.
And China, of course, isn’t without options. Sure, an invasion’s on the menu, but so are diplomacy, social engineering, cyber warfare, financial leverage — each a geopolitical delicacy China is very familiar with.
The catch with invading Taiwan is crystal clear. China would need to go all-in from the outset, launching a preemptive strike against U.S. bases along the First Island Chain. Otherwise, the U.S. military would repeal the invasion, decimating China’s invading navy as if shooting fish in a barrel. Then China would be left with no options, but to escalate the situation.
Read the rest here.