(Oct. 11, 2020) — Political polling is no longer a reliable tool (reference point) that can be used by voters and strategists. It has become a tactic designed to mislead, nothing more. There are numerous current examples that clearly demonstrate the point. On Saturday 10/10, RealClearPolitics reported that Biden had a 7-8 point lead in AZ; however, that very same night, Jesse Waters (FOX News) reported that TRAFALGAR had Trump leading in AZ by 4 points, a 12-point difference. Does it make sense? Of course not, and Trafalgar was one of the few pollsters that had Trump winning in 2016. Additionally, RCP has Biden leading in WI, MI, OH and PA, but only by a mere fraction. In 2016, Hillary was reportedly leading in those state-polls by 6-8 points; Trump won them all!
Trump has increased his base significantly since 2016, and GALLUP just reported that 56% of those polled stated they are better off financially today than four years ago. So who would vote for Biden/Harris, given those facts? Oh, one last tidbit: Trump is now competitive in three states that he lost in 2016; namely, NH, MN and CO.
To get a better flavor of the vagaries of polling, click here (this guy sounds like me). We’ll know for sure on November 3rd.