BUT WERE THEY WRONG?
by Sharon Rondeau
(Nov. 22, 2012) — Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, has reportedly “blasted” Gallup for having “consistently showed Romney with an outsized national lead in comparison to other polls” prior to the November 6, 2012 election.
However, Gallup’s website shows that it did not always report that Romney was ahead in pre-election polls. An article published the day before the election showed Romney one point ahead but Obama leading in early voting by one point. Several well-known and experienced pundits had claimed that Democrats were oversampled in pre-election polls and that Republican support was therefore under-rated. Dick Morris was positive in mid-September that Romney would win prior to any of the presidential and vice-presidential debates.
Obama’s Justice Department joined a lawsuit against Gallup in 2009 after a former Gallup employee reported that the company had been overcharging the State Department and U.S. Mint for its services. The chief counsel for Gallup has denied the charges. The lawsuit had not been officially served to Gallup until August of this year, and it was reported that Axelrod had tried to intimidate Gallup employees last April after the polling company reported that Romney was leading. Gallup stood by the “methodology” which Axelrod had criticized.
Gallup is viewed by some as possessing “a persistent bias…toward the GOP.” Gallup has used the “likely voter” criterion since 1950 to take presidential election polls. Described as one of “the world’s most prominent and respected public-opinion organizations,” Gallup states that it does not make “predictions” about the outcome of a presidential race, but rather, measures the national popular vote.
At the end of October, Rasmussen was showing Romney ahead of Obama by four points in 11 swing states. However, on Election night, it was reported that Romney won only one of them: North Carolina.
The president and vice president are not elected by popular vote, but rather, by electors who vote in the Electoral College in December following a presidential election to officially elect them. The Electoral College was established by the Founders to strike a balance between states with large, urban populations and those with smaller populations which were largely agricultural.
On the evening of November 6, Gallup posted a list of nine items to be considered as the election returns were coming in, with the first stating that Republican enthusiasm was higher than that of Democrats.
Obama’s lead pollster took issue with what he claimed were “wild variations” reported by Gallup and other companies prior to the election, stating that the demographics of the American electorate have shifted.
It has been reported that Obama was declared the winner by “massive election theft” which could not be detected by means of a traditional recount. Recently The Post & Email learned that 2008 Republican presidential candidate John McCain had reportedly been aware of ballot-stuffing by Democrats in Pennsylvania and Ohio but chose to do nothing about it. Those states are two of at least a handful in which entire wards or precincts registered no votes for Romney in 2012.
Business Insider lists four “assumptions” made during the campaign which caused “conservative” pollsters to believe that the polling was slanted in favor of Democrats and Obama. While the creator of “Unskewed Polls” told Business Insider that his pre-election assessment that Romney was considerably head of Obama were “wrong,” he later established a website claiming that Obama “stole the election.” Business Insider has claimed that Dean Chambers, creator of Unskewed Polls, has embraced an “implausible theory.”
BI reports that Gallup is now at the bottom of a ranking of pollsters for the 2012 election and that two left-leaning pollsters are in the first and second positions. Nate Silver, who had predicted a considerable Obama win, stated that Obama’s “performance” was “underestimated.”
There are numerous reports of widespread voter fraud both in early voting and on November 6, but the most significant manner in which some say votes were “flipped” is attributed to touch-screen voting machines which could have invisibly changed Romney votes to Obama votes, a phenomenon witnessed by several early voters in Kansas, North Carolina, and Ohio.